Three Predictions!

Here are some predictions for the season that almost wasn't and the team that will be tougher than cafeteria steak.

Rick Nash will not be missed.

            The time to grieve Nash’s trade has come and gone. Regardless of whether or not Blue Jackets fans believe the team got enough in return for its face of the franchise, talk of no. 61’s absence will not dominate intermission discussions.

            Sure, Nash was a 30-goal scorer and the team’s lone All-Star representative since Espen Knutsen earned the honor in 2002, but he wasn’t the superstar Columbus needed. He was a power forward on a team that couldn’t put pucks on net.

            When you consider the fact that R.J. Umberger notched 20 goals last season Nash’s contribution doesn’t seem as vital to the team’s success. Furthermore, Vinny Prospal came only four points shy of Nash’s team leading 59.

            Nash is a player that thrives when surrounded by skill players, but he never had that luxury in the state capital. Dubinsky and Anisimov should more than make up for Nash’s departure.

            It will be another year of blue-collar hockey in Columbus and the team has acquired better personnel to fit the mold.

Jenner will fly with the Falcons

            Todd Richards announced on Thursday that Blue Jackets top prospect Boone Jenner had been reassigned to the OHL's Oshawa Generals and that Tim Erixon had been bumped down to AHL's Springfield Falcons 

            Columbus will keep Jenner with the Falcons for the entirety of the abbreviated season to avoid burning a year of his entry-level contract. In the 48-game season, call-ups can play a maximum of five games before one year of their entry-level deal is used.

            Jenner has the potential to be the Blue Jackets’ next big name and Columbus’ front office under the direction of John Davidson understands this. As the team has learned in the past, big names are hard to keep in the 614 and even harder when they’re asking for a big wad of dough when it comes time to negotiate their second contract.

Mason will make a comeback

            Every year this argument is about as lofty as the rainbow backhanders that seem to always beat Mason’s glove hand, BUT, this year is different because of one man: Sergei Bobrovsky. 

            Before Bobrovsky was dealt to Columbus he pushed the spaceman Ilya Bryzgalov in Philadelphia, and one could argue that Bryzgalov has had a bit more success in the league than Mason. By that I mean, if Bobrovsky can push a goalie who has posted a 2.52 GAA over 10 seasons, he can probably push goalie who has been in a three-year hibernation.

            Mason will get the picture quickly…and if he doesn’t I’ll save this prediction and insert it in next year’s post.

NBC Deal Gives Hope

            Forget the monster deals Zach Parise and Ryan Suter scored this offseason, the league is more concerned with a much less publicized contract. That contract belongs to the National Broadcasting Company, or NBC, and it may be the catalyst that ends the impending lockout.

            Last year, the NHL and NBC Sports Group agreed to a 10-year deal that would make NBC and NBC Sports Network, formerly Versus, the exclusive homes for NHL action. The partnership extends until the 2020-2021 season.

            NBC and its cable station have aired and will continue to air special events such as the NHL Winter Classic, NHL All-Star Weekend, and “Hockey Day in America” in addition to the “Game of the Week.” The deal also encompassed a provision that stated NBC Universal would televise each game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This contract marked the first time the NHL and its broadcasting partner agreed to air the entire postseason.

The longevity and contents of the deal coupled with the NHL’s history of labor disagreements prompted NBC to stipulate that in the event of a lockout it would still pay the league the $200 million annual payout, though it would require the sacrificed games to be tacked on to the end of the contract. In other words, part if not all of the 2021-2022 season would be played and televised without compensation if there is a work stoppage.

The rate of inflation dictates that for NBC the monetary benefits of a lockout would outweigh the burden caused by the disruption of programming. This is very important for the league as the $200 million paycheck it receives largely contributes to the hockey related revenue that the NHL and NHLPA have battled for rightful shares of in year’s collective bargaining agreement.

November 23^rd marks the first nationally televised game of the 2012-2013 campaign. With this date in mind the money hungry owners may feel the pressure of striking a deal before they start losing the some of the revenue they so desire. 

Lockout Looms

            On September 15^th commissioner Gary Bettman is expected to announce the league’s decision to lockout the players. It will be the NHL’s second lockout in a decade and third in Bettman’s 19-year tenure.

            The divide between the owners and the players hinges on a word neither side can manage to define: hockey related revenue. This revenue is built by funds from ticket sales, ads plastered on the boards, grill covers with the team emblem, and so forth. With a few exceptions, hockey related revenue is everything hockey related but its meaning is still a bit equivocal.

            Currently the players own 57 percent of the revenue while the owners collect 43 percent. However, with the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement looming, the owners want a larger cut of the cash and they plan to suspend play until their requests are met.

            The owners initial offer to the NHLPA asked the players to cut their share of HRR to 43 percent. Upon reviewing a counter-proposal from the NHLPA and its director Donald Fehr, the league upped the player’s share to 46 percent; however, this too failed to make any headway.

Copyright 2009 KoKo Press Inc.

            Fehr and the NHLPA have asked for nothing in the CBA negotiations. In fact, by submitting a counter-proposal they have already agreed to take a pay cut. It comes down to what the owners believe they can squeeze out of an NHLPA that made huge sacrifices in the 2004-2005 lockout.

            In addition to gaining a more favorable share of HRR, the owners are also asking for a few more changes to the CBA. The league would like to institute a salary cap floor, set a contract term limit, and continue to place a portion of the players’ salaries in escrow.

            Most of the changes the league is attempting to make would aid the small market teams that have been losing money in past seasons. The players are sympathetic to this problem as they agreed to take less salary money in the next few years if the wealthier teams agreed to increase revenue sharing to help their less fortunate clubs.

             Finding this common ground provided some traction, but not enough. The stalemate continues and the likelihood of a lockout is all but guaranteed.  And it stinks worse than a pair of hockey gloves.

Big Skates to Fill

            Following what was arguably the Blue Jackets’ boldest trade its eleven-year history, many fans remain unhappy with the return for their former star. The general consensus being that Rick Nash was worth more than a pair of forwards, a young defenseman, and a draft pick. And so while Nash does his inaugural meet-and-greets in New York City, the crestfallen fan base in Columbus has not yet started its transition. And it may take awhile.      

            Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, and Tim Erixson have some huge skates to fill, as Nash, perhaps as much as any player, obtained the much sought-after “intangibles” that hide within the stat sheet.

            Nash interacted with the community off the ice as much as he did on it. Through hard work and loyalty, the power-forward became the face of a franchise struggling to earn respect.  He was often the team’s lone representative at prestigious league functions such as the famed All-Star Game and the postseason NHL Awards ceremony.

Jamie Sabau - Getty Images

            The Ontario-native occasionally received recognition for his contributions away from the rink but his most unique attribute was hardly detectable to the casual fan. The soft-spoken captain served as a steady and reassuring voice for the playoff-starved fans. Though it may not have been apparent, his stoic expression and was more a symbol of perseverance than apathy.

            The five-time All-Star played in 674 regular season games with the Blue Jackets recording a team-leading 547 points. In 2009, Columbus notched its first and only playoff birth, however the jubilation was short-lived as Detroit swept the series. Nash could have used his team’s lack of success an excuse to leave the city, but instead of playing through the remainder of his contract then testing the market, the winger signed an eight-year contract extension with the team.

            Despite being considered one of the best power forwards in the game, Nash chose to stick with the team that drafted him seven years earlier, fully aware of the success he could have with a more talented squad. In 54 games with Team Canada the power forward has registered 53 points. Nash has 12 points in five All-Star games. And during the lockout year, Nash played alongside San Jose standout Joe Thornton recording 46 points in 44 games.

            He was the epitome of dedication and up until the moment the trade call was made the winger was acting with the Blue Jackets in mind. Nash offered to be a piece of the puzzle when management announced its plans to rebuild and, after months of trying, Scott Howson finally fulfilled his player’s trade request.

            Nash’s records may be broken, though his predecessors will not be able to duplicate the magnitude of his influence on the franchise. His ability to grab two of the NHL’s most esteemed prizes in the Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophy and the NHL Foundation Player Award brought much-needed attention to a previously unknown expansion team, and for that, fans will be forever grateful.

            It is for is for these reasons that Howson would never have found a trade to satisfy Columbus’ supporters. Artem Anisimov and Brandon Dubinsky may match Nash’s goal total next season, but they will not be able to replace him. Statistics only say so much about a player.         

           

           

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Chapter Closed: Nash Traded

            In the past few weeks, finding a Rick Nash jersey on a clearance rack was all too common. It was an ominous sign for a fan base centered upon its franchise player. Then, after months of waiting, the inevitable became reality as Blue Jackets faithful were assured that #61 had played his final game in union blue.  

News of the long-awaited trade broke on Monday afternoon as TSN’s Darren Dreger and Bob McKenzie revealed details of the swap. The Blue Jackets acquired forwards Artem Anisimov and Brandon Dubinsky, defenseman Tim Erixson, and a first-round draft pick from the New York Rangers in exchange for Nash, minor-leaguer Steve Delisle, and a conditional third-round draft pick.

It was a deal that presumably hinged on Scott Howson’s reluctance to devalue his franchise player. Nash publicly asked for a trade at February’s trade deadline but was not moved because the team felt it was not offered the right pieces in return.

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images North America

          

However, when free agency began and big-name forwards such as Bobby Ryan and Shane Doan announced their intentions to test the market, teams seeking to boost their scoring without breaking the bank were given more room to negotiate. No longer were they forced to pursue Nash and adhere to Howson’s wish list.

Juggling Nash’s trade request and maintaining his own steep asking price ultimately proved to be too difficult for Howson as he blinked in a stare-off with Rangers GM Glen Sather. However, while Columbus did not land key assets such as Ryan McDonagh and Chris Kreider, it did add some notable talent to the front lines.           

Anisimov and Dubinksy will probably be among the Blue Jackets’ top-six forwards. Last season, Anisimov registered 36 points in 79 games while Dubinsky logged 34 points in 77 games. Both players will more than likely increase their offensive production with Columbus, as they will see more ice time than they did in Madison Square Garden. 

Defensive prospect Tim Erixson may have a more difficult time breaking into the lineup. He spent last season in the Connecticut Whale of the American Hockey League where he notched 33 points in 52 games. Erixson is considered a highly touted prospect, though his history of attitude problems may tempt Howson to flip the 21-year old to another squad with hopes of landing another forward.

How the Erixson acquisition pans out could make or break the deal. Dubinksy and Anisimov are two pieces to the puzzle, but Rick Nash leaves an enormous void when looking at the big picture.

           

Foligno, Aucoin Join Jackets

            Columbus made pair of interesting moves on the first day of free agency. First, the Blue Jackets tapped into their surplus of defenseman to add a skilled forward. Then, later in the day, GM Scott Howson made an acquisition that 29 other teams would have never made to restore Columbus’ lack of confidence in his managerial capabilities.

Mark Methot for Nick Foligno (Ottawa)

           

            Although this wasn’t the exact trade the Senators wanted, Howson reported it did not take long to negotiate, which isn’t surprising considering the Blue Jackets unloaded a defensive reliability in exchange for a forward entering the peak of his career.  

            Columbus’ depth on the blue line made the move possible as James Wisniewski and Jack Johnson are expected to play on the team’s top pairing, followed by the Russian tandem of Nikita Nikitin and Fedor Tyutin.

            Sweetening the deal was the fact that Foligno is an asset the Blue Jackets desperately need. The gritty left-winger comes off a career-best season, registering 47 points in addition to a goal and three assists during the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

            Foligno also fits into Columbus’ physical style of play. The 24-year-old recorded 124 penalty minutes and 196 hits with the Senators in the 2011-2012 season. He has not missed a game in two seasons.

            Howson was unclear as to where Foligno would play next season though his versatility may help him become a top-six forward on a team desperate for goals.

           

Adrian Aucoin

            Shortly after Columbus traded away Methot, Howson dipped into the free agency pool to cover any holes he may have created on the blue line. However, he may have dipped too far, inking the soon to be 39-year-old Aucoin to a one-year $2 million dollar contract.

            The acquisition is extremely similar to that of the ever-regrettable Adam Foote deal, except Aucoin is not nearly as revered as Foote was when he joined the Blue Jackets.

            In 16 NHL seasons Aucoin has accumulated 777 points, however his numbers were significantly lower last season as the veteran defenseman recorded only 9 points in 64 games.

            Howson slapped down the experience card while explaining the reason behind the addition. However, Howson did not address the fact that current Blue Jacket blue liners such as Johnson, Wisniewski, and Tyutin also have tenure and could mentor the young players just as easily as Aucoin could.

            Overall, it’s an ill-advised move for a team trying to usher in a new era of defenseman. John Moore and Ryan Murray, assuming he makes the team, will have to battle more for ice time because Columbus added a blue-liner in the twilight of his career.